The Third Nuclear Age | Legacy IAS Academy

Introduction :

The Third Nuclear Age marks a shift from conventional deterrence-based stability to a extra unpredictable period the place nuclear weapons are used as instruments of coercion and strategic signalling.

This part displays international energy realignment, weakening of nuclear norms, and rising threat of nuclear use, not like the structured bipolarity of the Chilly Warfare or the disarmament hopes of the post-Chilly Warfare interval.

Relevance : GS 2(Worldwide Relations ), GS 3(Inner and Exterior Safety)

Framework of Nuclear Ages

First Nuclear Age (Chilly Warfare period)

• Bipolar deterrence: US vs USSR; logic of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
  • Peak: ~70,000 warheads mixed
  • Arms management: Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT), New START (expires 2026)
  • Purpose: Stability by way of bilateral treaties

Second Nuclear Age (Put up-Chilly Warfare optimism)

• Perception in eventual disarmament (e.g. World Zero, CTBT, NPT extensions)
  • Rise of regional nuclear powers (India, Pakistan)
  • Cynical stability: Nuclear possession accepted; disarmament deferred
  • Outcome: NPT inequality entrenched; modernisation started regardless of disarmament speak

Third Nuclear Age (Current)

• Messy multipolarity with rising insecurity
  • Key shifts:
    • China’s strategic nuclear growth (now ~600 warheads)
    • Russia’s tactical nuclear weapon motion to Belarus
    • NATO allies reconsidering impartial deterrents
    • Israel’s unsanctioned strike on Iran breaks norms
  • Development: From deterrence to coercion

Violation of Worldwide Norms

• Israel’s motion towards Iran:
  • Contravenes NPT framework and worldwide diplomatic norms
  • No main international energy condemned it → norm erosion
• Russia’s nuclear posturing over Ukraine:
  • Nuclear coercion changing deterrence
  • Use of nukes to change, not protect, the established order

Geopolitical Drivers

• China: Seeks “strategic counterbalance” to shift international energy constructions
• Russia: Makes use of nuclear threats for geopolitical leverage
• U.S. below Trump: Retreat from management; NATO’s inside recalibration
• Europe: France and UK re-arming and planning for impartial deterrence
• Nuclear Modernisation: Throughout all main powers (US: $1.5–2 trillion programme)

Safety & Deterrence Issues

• Shift from passive deterrence to energetic risk utilization
• Tactical nukes being re-deployed → Elevated threat of precise use
• Finish of Arms Management Period:
  • New START expires in 2026
  • No successor treaty with Russia or China in sight
• Chance of proliferation spillover to West Asia and East Asia